问HN：十年后的科技就业将会是什么样子？
哪些工作将变得普遍？哪些工作将变得稀缺？
我并不预测普通程序员会被淘汰，但新冠疫情期间的招聘热潮已经过去，大型科技公司在很大程度上成功地缩减了在疫情期间招聘的员工队伍，包括前端、后端和全栈工程师。我认为，针对这些职位所需的代码模式已经被大型语言模型（LLMs）成功识别。在许多情况下，一名经验丰富的员工工程师配合一个可靠的LLM，其生产力与五年前由一名资深工程师带领的2-4名初级工程师团队相当。我不指望“传统”网页开发领域会有太多扩展（这些职位在现代形式上大约只存在了20年，差不多是在Rails首次发布的时候）。
许多人，如Amjad Masad和Beff Jezos认为，对于那些曾经会担任这些职位的人来说，选择要么是深入技术栈，向底层硬件靠拢，原因在于嵌入式工程的相对难度。我们很难想象像SpaceX火箭、波音飞机或Anduril无人机这样的高风险软件，主要依赖于匆忙编写并迅速投入生产的“感觉编码”。因此，要求大量正式、模拟或物理验证的软件似乎仍然是必要的，但这比编写网页要困难得多。在操作系统、嵌入式系统、微控制器、驱动程序等领域，编写C、C++、Rust的劳动市场扩展似乎是可能的。
另一个选择似乎是完全离开技术栈，利用小团队为小部分用户创建小众和针对性的应用程序。在这一领域也取得了一些成功，但这需要比单纯成为一名专家程序员和理解一些计算机科学更广泛的技能。
选择似乎是开始阅读Bjarne Stroustrup或Peter Thiel的书。但无论哪条路径的技能上限都相当高，短期内我预测软件工程劳动市场将持续收缩，同时人们调整他们的教育和长期职业目标。我认为FAANG公司的员工人数短期内不会恢复，甚至可能永远不会恢复。这对传统创业路径有更广泛的影响，以前在FAANG积累经验后再创业，但我偏离了主题……
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What jobs will become prevalent? Which will become scarce?<p>I do not predict the elimination of the humble coder, but the covid hiring wave has come and gone, and Big Tech for the most part successfully minimized the workforces of those who were hired in the covid wave: frontend, backend and fullstack engineers. The patterns of code required for these positions have been successfully recognized by the LLMs I think, and for many cases a single staff engineer with experience and a trusty LLM is similarly productive as a team of 2-4 junior engineers led by a senior engineer was only a short 5 years ago. I do not expect much expansion in this "traditional" web development (these positions have really only existed in modern form for about 20 years, roughly when Rails was first released).<p>Many such as Amjad Masad and Beff Jezos are of the opinion that for those who would have taken these positions before, the options are to either drill down the stack towards the bare metal, by reason of relative difficulty of embedded engineering, and that one struggles to imagine high-stakes software such as in a SpaceX rocket, Boeing airplane, or Anduril drone relying primarily on vibe-coded slop hastily LGTM'd into production. So the kind of software that requires large amounts of formal, simulated, or physical verification seems to still be necessary, but this is much more difficult to write than a webpage. Expansions in the labor market for those writing C, C++, Rust in the context of operating systems, embedded systems, microcontrollers, drivers, and so forth seems likely.<p>The other option seems to be to leave the stack entirely, and leverage small teams to create niche and targeted applications for small segments of users. There has been some success in this area as well, but requires a much broader skillset than simply being an expert programmer and understanding some computer science.<p>The options seem to be either to start reading Bjarne Stroustrup or Peter Thiel. But the skill ceiling for either path is fairly high, and for the short term I predict a sustained contraction in the software engineering labor market, while people adapt their educations and long-term career goals. Headcounts at FAANG I don't see recovering soon if ever. This has broader implications for a traditional startup route where one earned their stripes at FAANG before launching their own venture, but I digress ...