问HN：经济学家们，你们对美国的关税有什么看法？
每个人和他们的亲戚对关税都有自己的看法，但我担心我听到的大多数观点都带有很强的党派色彩，或者关注的细节与实际关税的核心内容无关（例如，数学错误、实施细节、不一致的沟通等）。我希望能听到一些在这一领域有一定资历的人对“原始”关税本身影响的分析（即，不仅仅是沙发专家）。以下是一些具体的关注话题：
1. 我听说过一个观点，认为关税会激励制造业回流到美国。这种说法在多大程度上是正确的？是否有其他方法可以实现类似的效果？
2. 这篇文章（https://www.economicforces.xyz/p/is-dollar-dominance-good-for-the）似乎声称，提高关税将减少贸易赤字，从而减少财政赤字，避免一些特里芬困境（https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma）的问题。这种说法在多大程度上是正确的？是否有其他方法可以实现类似的效果？
3. 还有其他我遗漏的关于关税的合理论点吗？
查看原文
Everyone and their cousin has an opinion on the tariffs, but I fear that most of what I hear is very partisan, or focuses on details aside from the meat of the actual tariffs (eg, math errors, details of rollout, inconsistent communication, etc). I'm interested to hear an analysis of the impact from the 'raw' tariffs themselves, from people that have some credentials in this space (ie, not just armchair experts). To give some specific topics of interest:<p>1. I've heard the argument that tariffs will incentivize manufacturing to return to the US. To what degree is this true? Are there alternative methods that achieve similar things?<p>2. This article (https://www.economicforces.xyz/p/is-dollar-dominance-good-for-the) seems to claim that increased tariffs will reduce trade deficit, in turn reducing financial deficit, which avoids some issues of a Triffin Dilemma (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma). To what degree is this true? Are there alternative methods to achieve a similar thing?<p>3. Are there other legitimate arguments for / against the tariffs that I've missed?