我对未来感到担忧。你呢？
我的孩子们正在大学攻读STEM学位（计算机科学和机器人），其中一位还在攻读艺术双学位（动画）。<p>我们在美国，但也有家人在欧洲和拉丁美洲。<p>那么，问题是什么呢？我认为有两个显而易见的担忧。<p>第一个是人工智能将如何改变行业格局。很容易看出，在不久的将来，公司可能只需要1/5到1/10的工程师就能开发出产品。我们可以将这个时间定义为一名刚毕业的高中生完成硕士学位所需的时间。<p>在未来6到10年内，考虑到潜在结果的巨大变数，你如何能有效地建议和指导年轻人呢？<p>第二个担忧是西方的巨大去工业化（这并不是以美国为中心，欧洲、拉丁美洲等地区也受到深刻影响），因为中国在几乎所有制造领域巩固了主导地位。<p>当美国、欧洲和拉丁美洲不再生产任何东西（相对而言），而人工智能使得80%的人不再必要来运营大多数企业时，这些地区将变成什么样子？<p>在最近的HN讨论中，关于关税的法院动态，通常的单方面仇恨主导了对话。然而，没有人似乎停下来提出任何解决方案来应对这个将在未来几年影响数亿人（甚至数十亿人）的现实问题。如果你连保护自己的工业基础都不尝试，而人工智能又导致大规模失业，那又该怎么办？<p>我希望通过这篇帖子能引发一次探索性的对话。我的观点很简单：橙色的人不好。好的，明白了。人工智能是不可阻挡的，这是我们在未来几年必须面对的现实。如果我们不全力以赴保护美国、欧洲和拉丁美洲的工业基础，我所看到的只有彻底的毁灭。我们不能仅靠人工智能来支撑整个经济。这不是事情运作的方式。你需要制造东西。你需要一个充满活力和多样化的多学科工业基础才能繁荣和生存。<p>我认为保护主义在长期内并不是一个好主意。然而，我也觉得自己并不具备理解其他可能的应对措施的能力，不知道可以采取哪些手段来减轻进一步的经济破坏。<p>我一生都在制造业工作，亲眼目睹了过去几十年发生的事情。这并不好看，而且情况将会变得更糟。贸易不仅失衡，各种形式的操控（货币、知识产权盗窃等）在世界许多地区造成了深远而广泛的破坏。你不能仅靠人们制造3D打印和激光切割的小饰品在Etsy上销售来支撑经济。<p>所以，如果你能暂时放下仇恨，能否分享一下你对美国、欧洲和拉丁美洲在应对未来挑战时的想法？
查看原文
My children are in college pursuing STEM degrees (CS and Robotics), with one also pursuing an art double major (animation).<p>While we are in the US, we also have family in Europe and Latin America.<p>So, what's the concern? Well, there are two that I think should be obvious.<p>The first is how AI will alter the landscape. It is easy to see that companies might be able to develop products with somewhere between 1/5 to 1/10 the engineers in the not-too-distant future. Let's define that as the time required for a fresh high school graduate to finish a Masters degree.<p>How can you possibly advise and guide a young person given the huge variability of potential outcomes 6 to 10 years out?<p>The second is the massive deindustrialization of the West (again, this isn't US-centric as Europe, Latin America and others are deeply affected) as China solidifies into a dominant position in manufacturing just-about everything.<p>What do the US, Europe and Latin America become when they don't make anything (in relative terms) and AI makes 8 out of 10 people not necessary to run most businesses?<p>In a recent thread here on HN about what's going on with courts about tariffs the usual one-sided hatred drove the conversation. And yet, nobody seems to stop to propose any sort of a solution to the very real problem that will affect hundreds of millions of people (billions?) in the next few years. If you don't even attempt to protect your industrial means and AI leads to massive unemployment, then what?<p>I am hoping for an exploratory conversation as a result of this post. My point is simple: Orange man bad. Fine. Got it. AI is unstoppable, so that is a reality we will have to face over the coming years. If we don't pull out all stops to protect the industrial base in the US, Europe and Latin America, the only thing I see is absolute devastation. We cannot float entire economies on the back of AI. That's not how things work. You need to make things. You need a vibrant and varied multidisciplinary industrial base to thrive and survive.<p>I don't think protectionism is a good idea for the long term. However, I don't think I am equipped to understand what else one might be able to do, what levers you can pull, to mitigate further economic destruction.<p>I have been in manufacturing my entire life, with a front seat to what has happened over the last few decades. It isn't pretty at all. And it will get much worse. Not only is trade unbalanced, various forms of manipulation (currency, IP theft, etc.) have laid a path of destruction that is deep and wide across many regions in the world. You can't support an economy purely on people making 3D printed and laser-cut trinkets to sell on Etsy.<p>So, if you can put your hatred aside for a few minutes. What are your ideas on what the US, Europe and Latin America can do to survive what's in the horizon?