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罗伯特·萨波尔斯基认为一切都是决定论的，但我在想，人类的不确定性是否源于我们罕见的能力，能够在激励结构之外行动——即使这毫无意义，我们仍然选择挣扎、混乱和创造性的冒险。我们已经拥有应对生存挑战的科学和技术——气候变化、人工智能风险，甚至人类长寿——但似乎没有人相信未来会比现在更好。反乌托邦是默认的叙事，这种虚无主义扼杀了定义20世纪初的“登月文化”。我们并没有在2030年建设22世纪，而是陷入了渐进主义的泥潭。轨道太阳能发电站在哪里？永久的月球基地呢？那些旨在提升我们而非安抚我们的人工智能呢？这些想法之所以感觉像科幻小说，仅仅是因为没有人疯狂到愿意尝试。艾伦·凯曾说，预测未来的最好方法是去创造未来。也许真正的“可计算性面纱”——我们的盲点——是我们已经停止想象值得预测的未来。问题是：今天的新“登月文化”会是什么样子——谁还足够疯狂去实现它？

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Robert Sapolsky argues that everything is deterministic, but I wonder if human unpredictability comes from our rare ability to act outside of incentive structures—choosing struggle, chaos, and creative risk even when it makes no sense.We already have the science and technology to tackle existential challenges—climate change, AI risk, even human longevity—but nobody seems to believe the future will be better than the present. Dystopia is the default narrative, and this nihilism has killed the moonshot culture that defined the early 20th century. Instead of building the 22nd century in 2030, we’re stuck in incrementalism.Where are the orbital solar power stations? The permanent Moon bases? The AIs designed to elevate us rather than pacify us? These ideas feel like science fiction only because no one is crazy enough to try.Alan Kay said the best way to predict the future is to invent it. Maybe the real “veil of computability” - our blind spot - is that we’ve stopped imagining futures worth predicting.Question: What would a new moonshot culture look like today—and who’s still crazy enough to build it?

我们是否已经停止创造值得预测的未来？