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经济学是一个奇特的领域，声称自己是定量和科学的，但却受到准意识形态的困扰。我的高等教育背景是经济学。传统上，人们认为技术和生产力的提高会增加经济产出，从而导致实际工资随时间增长，因为工人们可以从不断扩大的蛋糕中分得一份。但是，在一个以消费为驱动的经济中，当技术和自动化使得资本持有者能够获得越来越大份额的蛋糕时，情况会如何变化呢？因为为了满足消费者需求，他们在每个产品单位的生产中所需的人力越来越少。传统的答案是服务经济会扩展。但当同样的情况发生在服务行业，甚至像遛狗这样的服务越来越多地由像Wag这样的应用程序公司提供时，会发生什么呢？是否会出现这样的情况：一个经济在后勤上能够满足需求，但由于劳动力过剩和生产要素的所有权集中在越来越少的人手中，无法通过工资收入有效分配其生产以供消费？再者，当其他国家的工资收入者生产我们大部分消费品，而我们的购买力仅仅依赖于我们货币的贬值时，又该如何呢？就我个人而言，我认为我们有几种可能的未来。一种是基于地方苏维埃的民主社会主义和普遍基本收入（UBI）。另一种是内爆和内乱。还有一种则是未知。第一种可能性不大，因为人们已经接受了一个过渡性的自由经济资本主义体系，这个体系之所以有效，主要是由于19世纪的工业革命。ChatGPT、YouTube上没人想看的脚趾甲真菌广告，以及Facebook的点赞，无法支撑一个经济。我认为最可能的结果是随着旧体系在自身重压下崩溃，社会动荡和战争将会发生。也许到那时，我们最终可以回归到更适合人类的农村农业共产主义或狩猎采集的生活方式，正如我们在数千年中所享有的那样，过着安宁与和平的生活。你怎么看？

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Economics is a strange field purpoting to be quantitative and scientific but beset by quasi ideologies.My higher education background is in Economics.Traditionally it is held that increasing technology and productivity increases economic output resulting in growing real wages over time as workers take their slice of a growing pie.But what happens in a consumption driven economy when technology and automation enable capital holders to take an ever larger slice of the pie because to satisfy consumer demand they need ever fewer people in production per unit product?The traditional answer is the service economy expands.But what happens when the same thing happens in services and even things like dog walking are increasingly provided by app hawking mega corps such as Wag?Does there come a point when an economy can logistically satisfy demand but due to the surplus of workers and concentration of ownership of production factors into ever fewer hands can not distribute its production effectively through wage income to consume?What about when wage earners in other countries make the majority of our consumption goods and our purchasing power is merely buoyed by the waning strength of our currency?Personally I think we have several possible futures.One is democratic socialism with UBI based on local soviets.Another is implosion and civil strife.Another is unknown.The first one is unlikely because people have bought into a transitional liberal economic capitalist system that only was efficient due to the 19th century industrial revolution.ChatGPT, ads for toenail fungus on Youtube natue documentaries nobody wants, and Facebook likes can't power an economy.I think the most likely outcome is civil strife and war as the old ststem collapses under its own weight.Maybe then we can finally revert to rural agrarian Communism or hunting and garthering as is more appropriate for humanity and as we lived in contentment and peace for thousands of years.What do you think?

经济生产力、技术与工资增长