请问HN：Cognition是如何能够以100亿美元的估值融资的？
我在寻找真实的答案，特别是想了解投资者的思维过程。请尽量不要用“风险投资者都是傻瓜”来回答，除非你绝对必须这样说。
Cognition AI，"Devin"的制造商以及最近收购Windsurf的公司，最近以100亿美元的估值融资。这与Cursor的估值大致相同，后者是全球增长最快的AI消费应用，年经常性收入达到5亿美元，深受许多程序员的喜爱。
与此同时，Devin一推出就引发了丑闻，并且声誉持续不佳。我认识的人中没有人使用它，似乎主要面向企业，并且只宣布与少数公司达成了合作。这让我觉得他们可能并没有5亿美元的年经常性收入，甚至离这个数字很远。他们在机器学习方面没有背景，只雇佣竞赛程序员。那么，他们是如何以远高于该领域其他公司且业绩记录更少的估值进行融资的呢？难道他们背后有一个强大的巨头？
对于投资者来说，他们如何期望收回投资？谷歌或其他公司会以100亿美元、200亿美元，甚至50亿美元收购Cognition吗？在这些情况下是否有强有力的条款保护投资者？他们怎么可能不在这里亏损一大笔钱呢？
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I'm looking for real answers and to understand the thought process particularly of investors. Please try not to answer with "VCs are idiots", unless you absolutely must.<p>Cognition AI, the makers of "Devin" and recent acquirers of Windsurf, raised recently at a $10B valuation [1]. This is about the same valuation as Cursor, which is the fastest growing AI consumer app in the world, with $500MM ARR, beloved by many programmers.<p>Meanwhile Devin launched with an immediate scandal and continues to have poor reputation. It is not used by anyone I know, seems to be targeted at enterprise, and has announced a single-digit number of deals with companies. Something makes me think they probably do not have $500MM ARR or anywhere close. They have no background in ML, hiring only contest programmers. So how are they raising at much higher valuations than any other company in this space with much less of a track record? Is it possible they are a great behemoth behind the scenes?<p>For investors, how do they expect to make their money back? Could Google or some other company buy Cognition at $10B, or $20B, or even $5B? Are there strong clauses that protect investors in these situations? How can they possibly not lose a bunch of money here?<p>[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/cognition-cinches-about-500-million-to-advance-ai-code-generation-business-f65f71a9