《大语言模型经济学单位》。回应埃德·齐特龙的“人工智能是一个金钱陷阱”
很多人关注巨额投资轮次以及在训练基础模型上烧掉的现金（正如Sam A.提到的数万亿），但很少有分析师解释经济单位，以便理解一个商业模式。如果你想知道为什么投资者仍然认为投资是个好主意，我尝试分析一下经济单位和长期潜力，看看这一切如何能够说得通。
部分总结：
- 现金消耗并不能准确代表销售成本（COGS）。OpenAI的支出主要用于研发，类似于制药公司。
- ChatGPT 4o的毛利率可能超过12.8%。
- ChatGPT OSS 120B的毛利率可能达到89%。它的成本比4o-mini便宜90%，推理能力也快3倍。
- ChatGPT 5的毛利率很可能介于12.8%和89%之间。
完整分析请见：https://medium.com/@brenoca/openais-road-to-profitability-8c7231f8494b
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A lot of attention is aimed at the huge investment rounds, cash burned into training foundation models (the trillions mentioned by Sam A.) and not enough analysts explain the units of economics to understand a business.<p>If you wonder why investors still think it’s a good idea to part with their money, I tried to break down the economic units and long term potential how all this could make sense.<p>Partial TL;DR<p>- Cash burn is not a fair approximation for COGS. OpenAI spends mostly on R&D like a pharmaceutical company does.
- ChatGPT 4o could be making more than 12.8% in gross margin.
- ChatGPT OSS 120B could be making 89% gross margin. It is 90% cheaper than
4o-mini with equivalent reasoning and 3x faster inference.
- ChatGPT 5's gross margin is most likely to fall between 12.8% and 89%.<p>Full breakdown: https://medium.com/@brenoca/openais-road-to-profitability-8c7231f8494b