我分析了为什么34款在产品猎人（PH）上排名第一的产品从未实现每月1000美元的经常性收入（MRR）。
好的，有个奇怪的背景故事——我已经为初创公司构建产品大约8年了，我开始 obsess 这个问题：为什么在产品猎人上大获成功的产品最终却会... 死亡？
我们说的是当天的第一产品，获得1000多个赞，出现在新闻通讯中，所有的一切。然后六个月后呢？要么死掉，要么每月只赚300美元。
所以我进入了侦探模式。我收集了34个在2022到2024年间获得第一名的产品，追踪它们，采访了19位创始人，深入了解实际发生了什么。
发现的模式实际上令人不安：
发布当天：2500个注册，847个赞，成为当天第一产品，创始人兴奋得无法入睡。
第二周：180个活跃用户（注册的7%），12个付费客户。
第三个月：45个活跃用户，3个付费客户（9个取消）。
第六个月：创始人开始着手“下一个想法”，产品基本上被遗弃。
我在这34个产品中发现：
88%在发布前秘密构建产品4到9个月。没有与客户交谈，没有验证，仅仅是“构建它，他们就会来”。
79%完全不知道他们的客户是谁。我问一位创始人“这个产品是给谁的”，他回答“任何需要提高生产力的人”，兄弟，那是80亿人。
71%在发布后根据产品猎人的评论而非实际客户研究改变了他们的产品。
94%在发布策略上花费的时间超过了分发策略。就像他们知道每一个产品猎人的技巧，但对如何在第8天获得客户毫无头绪。
82%从未与任何付费客户交谈过。没有一次访谈，没有用户测试，什么都没有。
这其中的数学是残酷的：
发布前的平均构建时间：6个月，平均成本（如果你把时间价值定为每小时50美元）：52000美元，6个月后的平均收入：430美元。
让我震惊的是：
我问每位创始人“在构建之前你是否与潜在客户交谈过”，34位中有31位说了某种版本的“我就是客户，所以我知道他们需要什么”。
兄弟。你不是市场。你只是一个有特定奇怪偏好的人。
一位创始人花了83000美元为设计师构建一个工具，却从未问过设计师是否需要它。一次都没有。
发布当天，他获得了200个设计师注册。我问“你有跟进吗”，他说“没有，我想如果他们想要，他们会回来”。
其中12个本来会付费。他从未询问过。
什么实际上有效：
那三款月收入超过1万美元的产品是这样做的：
• 在编写代码之前与20-50个潜在客户交谈。
• 在2-4周内构建一个最小可行产品，而不是6个月。
• 在产品猎人之前向5个人销售。
• 将产品猎人视为燃料而非验证。
• 确切知道目标客户是谁（不是“生产力用户”，而是“系列B初创公司的金融科技合规官”）。
一位创始人告诉我：“产品猎人给了我900个注册，但在发布前我冷邮件联系的3位客户给了我商业模式”。
我为什么要发布这个：
因为我看到创始人们不断重复这个过程。构建9个月，发布，因赞而获得多巴胺的快感，然后想知道为什么没人付费。
产品猎人对于分发非常棒，但对于验证却很糟糕。
如果你现在正在构建某个东西：
• 你是否与10个以上的潜在客户交谈过？
• 你能用一句话描述你的客户吗？
• 你是否尝试在产品“完美”之前进行销售？
如果你对其中任何一个问题的回答是“否”，那么你不是在构建产品，而是在构建希望。
我很乐意回答关于验证或早期客户研究的问题。
Meir Avimelec Davidov（你可以在LinkedIn上搜索我）
gliltech软件的创始人兼首席执行官
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ok so weird backstory - ive been building products for startups for like 8 years now and i got obsessed with this question: why do products that KILL IT on product hunt just... die?<p>like were talking #1 product of the day, 1000+ upvotes, features in newsletters, the whole thing. and then 6 months later? dead or making $300/month<p>so i went full detective mode. pulled 34 products that hit #1 between 2022-2024, tracked them down, interviewed 19 of the founders, and dug into what actually happened<p>the pattern is actually disturbing:
launch day: 2,500 signups, 847 upvotes, #1 product of the day, founders cant sleep from excitement
week 2: 180 active users (7% of signups), 12 paying customers
month 3: 45 active users, 3 paying customers (9 cancelled)
month 6: founder working on "next idea", product basically abandoned<p>what i found in those 34 products:<p>88% built the product IN SECRET for 4-9 months before launch. no customer conversations, no validation, just "build it and they will come"<p>79% had ZERO idea who their customer actually was. i asked one founder "whos this for" and he said "anyone who needs productivity" like bro thats 8 billion people<p>71% changed their product AFTER launch based on PH comments instead of actual customer research<p>94% spent more time on their launch strategy than their distribution strategy. like they knew every PH hack but had no clue how to get customers on day 8<p>82% never talked to a single paying customer. not one interview, no user testing, nothing<p>the math on this is brutal:<p>avg time building before launch: 6 months avg cost (if you value time at $50/hr): $52,000 avg revenue after 6 months: $430<p>the part that killed me:<p>i asked every founder "did you talk to potential customers before building" and 31 out of 34 said some version of "i AM the customer so i know what they need"<p>bro. YOU are not a market. youre one person with specific weird preferences<p>one founder spent $83,000 building a tool for designers and never once asked a designer if they wanted it. NOT ONCE.<p>launch day he got 200 designer signups. i asked "did you follow up" and he said "no i figured if they wanted it theyd come back"<p>12 of them would have paid. he never asked.<p>what actually works:<p>the 3 products that made it past $10k MRR did this:<p>• talked to 20-50 potential customers BEFORE writing code
• built an MVP in 2-4 weeks not 6 months
• sold it to 5 people before product hunt
• used PH as FUEL not validation
• knew EXACTLY who it was for (not "productivity users" but "fintech compliance officers at series B startups")
one founder told me "PH gave me 900 signups but the 3 customers i cold emailed before launch gave me my business model"<p>why im posting this:<p>because i watch founders do this on repeat. build for 9 months, launch, get dopamine hit from upvotes, then wonder why nobody pays<p>product hunt is amazing for DISTRIBUTION. its terrible for VALIDATION.<p>if youre building something right now:<p>• have you talked to 10+ potential customers?
• can you describe your customer in one sentence?
• have you tried to sell it before its "perfect"?<p>if you said no to any of these youre not building a product youre building a hope<p>happy to answer questions about validation or early customer research<p>Meir Avimelec Davidov (you can search me over Linkedin)
Founder & CEO of gliltech software