请问HN:如果将一项重大发现推迟几十年,最主要的变化是什么?

1作者: schrodinger26 天前原帖
思想实验:选择一个科学或技术突破,想象它在意义上晚到了一段时间。这将如何改变历史的轨迹? 为了保持趣味性: * 保持合理性——想想“晶体管延迟了40年”,而不是“直到2100年才有电”。 * 参与其中。适度悬置怀疑,使其变得有趣。 * 关注后果,而不是缺失的发明。这将如何改变历史的走向? 回顾历史,进步常常显得不可避免,但实际上它是一系列幸运的偶然事件。改变其中一个事件的时机,一切后续的事情都会发生变化。你的平行宇宙是什么样的?
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Thought experiment: Pick one scientific or technological breakthrough and imagine it arrived meaningfully later. How does that change the trajectory of history?<p>To keep this interesting:<p>* Keep it plausible—think &quot;transistors delayed 40 years,&quot; not &quot;no electricity until 2100.&quot;<p>* Play along with it. Suspend disbelief enough to make it interesting.<p>* Focus on the _consequences_, not the missing invention. How does this alter the arc of history?<p>Progress often feels inevitable in hindsight, but it&#x27;s really a sequence of lucky breaks. Change the timing of one, and everything downstream shifts. What&#x27;s your parallel universe?