问HN：Vitalik说量子计算可能在2028年前破坏椭圆曲线密码学。这听起来很疯狂，对吧？
量子计算机甚至还没有因式分解一个三位数，对吧？我手头没有离散对数解的对应信息，但即使它们以某种方式（??！）在Shor算法的空间计算上获得了4个以上的数量级提升，仍然存在一些主要的未解决的无聊问题，比如错误纠正和冷却，对吧？
或者在量子计算领域是否发生了一些震撼性的进展，使得这一切变得有可能？
在发布这条信息之前，我浏览了一些最近相关的重要讨论：
* Willow公告: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42367649
* Majorana 1公告: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43104071
* OpenSSH声明: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44863242
* 反对谷歌“量子霸权”声明的案例: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42384768
编辑：我想说，我非常喜欢Vitalik，我认为他有一颗美丽而友好的心和聪明的头脑；我和他在一起的几次，他都非常酷。这不是一篇反对Vitalik的帖子。更像是“我们在量子计算领域到底处于什么阶段”的帖子，我想这里有些人可以用相对简单的术语来总结一下。
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Quantum computers haven't even factored a three-digit number yet, right? I don't have handy the equivalent in discrete log solution, but... even if somehow (??!) they gain the 4+ orders of magnitude for Shor's space computation, there remain major unsolved boring problems like error correction and cooling, right?<p>Or have there been some galaxy-shaking developments in QC that actually make this somehow plausible?<p>Some recent, relevant, major discussions I brushed-up on before posting this:<p>* Willow announcement: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42367649<p>* Majorana 1 announcement: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43104071<p>* OpenSSH statement: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44863242<p>* The case against Google's claims of "quantum supremacy": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42384768<p>edit: I do want to say, I like Vitalik a lot and I think he has a beautiful and friendly brain and heart; the few times I hung with him he has been cool as heck. This is not an anti-Vitalik post. More of a "where are we really in QC" post, which I figure some people here can summarize in fairly simple terms.