印度板球队连续输了20次掷硬币，概率为百万分之一。
考虑到我们对某些事件几乎赋予了不存在的概率，但这永远不可能是零，并且在重要事件中可能产生灾难性的影响，我觉得这一点非常发人深省。
印度是一个几乎将板球视为宗教的国家，而板球是一项投掷结果可能非常重要的运动，有时甚至是决定性因素。看到这样一个低概率事件发生在他们的一日国际（ODI）板球队身上，真是有趣。更有趣的是，他们第一次输掉的投掷是在主场世界杯决赛中，尽管在所有小组赛中全胜，但最终还是输给了澳大利亚。
虽然这里的结果主要是一些热情球迷的心碎，且无伤大雅，但我不禁想知道，有多少历史事件发生过，并且明显记录的发生频率远低于人们的预期。
据我所记得，哈维飓风是一次500年一遇的事件，对休斯顿这个混凝土丛林造成的影响远超任何规划者的想象。也许只需一次500年一遇的地震，就能对美国西海岸产生显著影响。
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Given how we assign almost non existent probabilities to certain events but it is never 0 and can have catastrophic impacts in important events I found this quite illuminating.<p>India is a country where cricket is almost religion, and cricket is a sport where toss can be very important, sometimes almost deciding factor. It is funny to see such a low probability event happening with its one day international (ODI) cricket team. What is even funny is that the first toss loss was the final of their home world cup which they lost to Australia after winning all league matches and going into it undefeated.<p>While the outcome here is mostly heartbreak of some passionate fans and otherwise harmless, I wonder how many historical events have happened and are clearly documented to have been much rarer than one can expect.<p>As far as I remember Hurricane Harvey was a 1 in 500 year event impacting the concrete jungle of Houston much worse than any of the planners could've imagined. All it might take is a 1 in 500 year earthquake to signficantly impact US west coast.