为什么“网上赚钱”的建议对聪明人来说行不通
大多数关于“网上赚钱”的建议都是以工程学的方式呈现：按照步骤操作，就能得到结果。然而，在线收入的游戏更接近于市场+幂律+平台治理，而不是确定性系统。这些建议通常是由幸存者（或营销人员）撰写的，因此它们默默假设你会拥有（1）高于平均水平的分发能力，（2）稳定的平台覆盖率，以及（3）足够的时间进行迭代。
这些假设往往是错误的。在创作者/平台生态系统中，收入分布高度不均（少数人获得大部分收益），而且平台可以通过排名、变现规则或政策执行在一夜之间改变激励机制。即使在平台之外，新企业的生存率也非常严酷：2013年成立的企业中，只有34.7%在2023年仍在运营。
因此，聪明的人做了“正确”的事情……但仍然陷入困境。
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Most “make money online” advice is framed like engineering: follow the steps, get the output.<p>But the online income game is closer to markets + power laws + platform governance than to deterministic systems. The advice is usually written by survivors (or marketers), so it quietly assumes you’ll have (1) above-average distribution, (2) stable platform reach, and (3) enough runway to iterate.<p>Those assumptions are often false. Revenue is highly skewed in creator/platform ecosystems (a small minority captures most outcomes), and platforms can change incentives overnight via ranking, monetization rules, or policy enforcement. Even outside platforms, base rates for new businesses are brutal: only 34.7% of establishments born in 2013 were stil
l operating in 2023.<p>So smart people do the “right” things… and still get stuck.