问HN：还有其他人认为类人机器人是一个泡沫吗？
特别是，我指的是这些公司在进行一般和专业的体力劳动方面所推动的研究和智能愿景。<p>我完全开放于这样一种可能性：在可靠的硬件中实现良好的远程存在感，将成为我们经济的一个有价值的补充。如今，硬件的确在实用负载方面越来越优秀。<p>但我特别悲观的是，看到学术类型的研究试图用类人系统折叠衣物和将螺丝钉放入孔中，筹集数千万美元，并以此成立公司。现有的类人机器人也是如此。<p>一家主要的类人机器人公司（你可以搜索或猜测是谁）最近声称他们的类人机器人将在五年内在医院进行手术？这真是荒谬，几乎没有可能成为进行手术的首选平台，专用的手术床加上多臂平台才是更合适的选择。这甚至比《杰森一家》中罗西在我们家里吸尘的情景还要糟糕，因为在Roomba发明之前就已经存在了。<p>举个具体的例子，我必须进入细节 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlUFoZstcWg 但我想知道，假设这个任务需要进行数千次，这种方式怎么可能比为此任务设置机械臂更好？工厂布局的改变是使这一切值得的主要问题吗？即使是这样……在移动平台上的单个机械臂显然更经济。<p>无论如何，我看到这些事情，充满了大量的资金、炒作和乐观情绪，而我感到悲观有些疯狂，因为我通常是个技术乐观主义者。那么，其他人是否也有类似的感觉？是否有我遗漏的事情可能会激发一些乐观情绪？<p>期待讨论。
查看原文
In particular, I mean the research and intelligence vision these companies have been pushing for doing general and specialized physical labor.<p>I'm completely open to the possibility of having good telepresence in reliable hardware be a valuable addition to our economies. The hardware really is getting good these days, at useful payloads.<p>But what I'm particularly pessimistic about is seeing academic-type research try to fold clothes and put screws into holes with humanoid-like systems, raise 10s of $Mils, and form a company out of it. Ditto for existing humanoids.<p>One of the major humanoid companies (you can google/guess who) recently claimed that their humanoids will be doing surgeries in hospitals within 5 years? This is egregious, there is zero chance that becomes the platform of choice for doing surgery, over a special purpose-built bed + multi-arm platform specialized for said tasks. This is perhaps even worse that Rosie from the Jetsons vacuuming our homes before the Roomba is invented.<p>Showing another example, I have to get into specifics - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlUFoZstcWg But I want to know, how could this possibly be better than setting up arms for this task, assuming it is to be done thousands of times? Is the change to the factory layout the main issue that makes this worth it? Even if it is... a single arm on a mobile platform certainly does this more economically.<p>Anyways, I see all this stuff, there's tons of money and hype and optimism, and I feel crazy being pessimistic, as I'm usually the techno optimist. So, do others feel similarly? Are there things I'm missing that could fuel some optimism perhaps?<p>Looking forward to the discussion.