展示HN：NBA球队表现与预测市场预期的对比
嗨，HN，我们构建了这个。
NBA Edge Index使用来自Polymarket（真实货币预测市场）的赛前胜率。在每场比赛结束后，我们将结果与赛前赔率进行比较。超出预期的表现会提升球队的评分，而表现不佳则会降低评分。每支球队的初始评分为2000，评分在整个赛季中逐场累积。比赛结束后，更新会自动进行。
我们发现的一些有趣的数据点：
Polymarket的赔率在平均水平上相当准确：胜率在80%以上的球队赢得比赛的概率为82%（119场比赛），而胜率在60%到69%的球队赢得比赛的概率为63%。
表现最超出预期的球队：菲尼克斯太阳队，超出预期14.7%（市场给他们的平均赔率为45.8%；他们的胜率为60.5%）。
市场上被高估最多的球队：克利夫兰骑士队——胜率为55.8%，但市场给他们的隐含赔率为67.4%。他们作为重磅热门输掉了12场比赛。
最大冷门：犹他爵士队在1月13日以18.5%的市场赔率击败克利夫兰；我们的优势模型给犹他70.9%的胜率。
稳定性：在每支球队大约打了40场比赛后，排名开始显著分化，早期的噪音会平滑掉。
我们正在开发更多类似的指数。核心理念是：预测市场数据分散在数百个合约中，这些合约会到期并消失。我们将其转化为持久的、可追踪的指数。
我们使用的两种模式：
综合模式——将相关市场融合为一个数字。我们的全球冲突风险指数将大约15个Polymarket合约（乌克兰、台湾、伊朗）合并为一个数字。
滚动模式——自动替换到期合约。例如，我们的天气指数通过每天滚动更新来跟踪6个城市的温度偏差。
期待听到反馈或其他指数的建议。
实时NBA Edge指数在这里： [https://attena.xyz/nba](https://attena.xyz/nba)
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Hi HN, we built this.<p>The NBA Edge Index uses pre-game win probabilities from Polymarket (real-money prediction markets). After each game finalizes, we compare the outcome to the pre-game odds. Beating expectations moves a team's rating up; underperforming moves it down. Each team starts at 2000, and ratings accumulate game-by-game throughout the season. Updates happen automatically after games finalize.<p>A few data points we found interesting:<p>Polymarket odds are pretty accurate on average: teams priced at 80%+ won 82% of the time (119 games), and teams priced 60–69% won 63%.<p>Biggest overperformer: Phoenix Suns, +14.7% vs expectations (market gave them 45.8% avg odds; they won 60.5%).<p>Most overrated by market: Cleveland Cavaliers — 55.8% win rate but market gave them 67.4% implied. They've lost 12 games as heavy favorites.<p>Biggest called upset: Utah Jazz beat Cleveland on Jan 13 with 18.5% market odds; our edge model gave Utah 70.9%.<p>Stability: After ~40 games per team, rankings start to diverge meaningfully and early noise smooths out.<p>We're working on more indices like this. The core idea: prediction market data is fragmented across hundreds of contracts that expire and disappear. We turn it into persistent, trackable indices.<p>Two patterns we use:<p>Composite — Blend related markets into one number. Our Global Conflict Risk Index combines ~15 Polymarket contracts (Ukraine, Taiwan, Iran) into a single number.<p>Rolling — Auto-replace expiring contracts. For example our weather indices track 6-city temperature deviations by rolling forward daily.<p>Curious to hear feedback or suggestions of ideas for other indices.<p>The live NBA Edge index is here: <a href="https://attena.xyz/nba" rel="nofollow">https://attena.xyz/nba</a>