日本发生重大政治动荡？高市早苗可能解散国会
日本政坛风云变幻。多位政府消息人士透露，首相高市早苗正在考虑在1月23日国会会议开幕时立即解散众议院，并召集提前选举。这一举动被外界解读为一次政治赌博。高市早苗打算利用她目前高企的个人支持率，为自由民主党在众议院赢得更多席位，从而打破立法僵局，为预算案和安全法案等关键议程扫清障碍。
根据《日本经济新闻》的民调，高市早苗的支持率已连续三个月稳定在70%以上，目前达到了75%的历史新高。自去年10月内阁成立以来，各大媒体的民调也显示她的支持率一直保持在高位。借助这一有利势头，提前选举似乎是巩固权力的最佳机会。
尽管支持率高企，高市早苗及自由民主党仍面临严峻的内外挑战，受到政治丑闻和经济逆风的困扰。
在政治上，“黑金政治”丑闻的阴影尚未消散，自民党的内部融资问题依然没有解决，甚至高市早苗本人也受到牵连。去年12月，她所代表的自民党分部被曝光非法接受企业捐款。此外，她内阁中多达七位官员也卷入了类似的丑闻。
在经济方面，日本面临多重挑战：日元持续贬值，日元对美元的汇率在12日一度跌至158.19，创下一年来的最低水平；通货膨胀依然高企，剔除生鲜食品的核心CPI已连续44个月超过日本银行的目标，11月同比上涨3.0%；实际收入缩水，2025年11月人均实际工资在调整通胀后同比下降2.8%，标志着连续第11个月下降。经济正进入负增长，预计2025年第三季度日本的实际GDP年化率将大幅下降1.8%。外部需求的急剧收缩是主要原因，该季度商品和服务的出口环比下降了1.2%。
更令人担忧的是，价格上涨仍在持续。根据一项调查，预计2026年1月至4月，日本3593种食品的价格将上涨，平均涨幅为14%。
民调显示，日本公众对经济前景普遍持悲观态度，只有18%的人认为经济会改善。受访者最希望高市早苗内阁解决的问题是高物价和经济负担。此外，有58%的受访者担心紧张的地区关系会对日本经济产生负面影响。
在内外困扰之中，这场可能的提前选举无疑将是一场高风险的政治赌博。
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A political storm is brewing in Japan. Multiple government sources have revealed that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering immediately dissolving the House of Representatives and calling a snap election when the Diet session opens on January 23.
This move has been interpreted by outsiders as a political gamble. Sanae Takaichi intends to use her current high personal approval rating to win more seats for the Liberal Democratic Party in the House of Representatives, thereby breaking the legislative deadlock and clearing obstacles for key agendas such as the budget bill and the security bill.
According to a Nikkei poll, Sanae Takaichi's approval rating has remained stable above 70% for three consecutive months, and has now reached a record high of 75%. Since the cabinet was formed last October, polls from various media outlets have also shown that her approval rating has remained at a high level. Taking advantage of this favorable momentum, calling an early election seems to be the best opportunity to consolidate power.
Despite high approval ratings, Sanae Kaohsiung and the Liberal Democratic Party still face severe internal and external challenges, suffering from political scandals and economic headwinds.
Politically, the shadow of the "black money politics" scandal has not yet dissipated. The Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) internal funding problems remain unresolved, and even Sanae Takaichi herself has been implicated. Last December, the LDP branch she represented was exposed for illegally accepting corporate donations. Furthermore, as many as seven officials in her cabinet have been involved in similar scandals.
Economically, Japan faces multiple challenges: the yen continues to depreciate, with the yen-dollar exchange rate at its lowest level in a year, falling to 158.19 at one point on the 12th; inflation remains high, with the core CPI, excluding fresh food, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target for 44 consecutive months, rising 3.0% year-on-year in November; real income is shrinking, with per capita real wages in November 2025 decreasing by 2.8% year-on-year after adjusting for inflation, marking the 11th consecutive month of decline. The economy is entering negative growth, with Japan's real GDP expected to fall sharply by 1.8% at an annualized rate in the third quarter of 2025. The sharp contraction in external demand is the main reason, with exports of goods and services declining by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in that quarter.
What worries the public even more is that the price hikes are still ongoing. According to a survey, from January to April 2026, the prices of 3,593 kinds of food in Japan will increase, with an average increase of 14%.
Polls show that the Japanese public is generally pessimistic about the economic outlook, with only 18% believing it will improve. The issues respondents most want the Takashi City cabinet to address are high prices and the economic burden. Furthermore, a significant 58% of respondents worry that tense regional relations will negatively impact the Japanese economy.
Amidst internal and external troubles, this potentially early election will undoubtedly be a high-risk political gamble.