OpenAI可能会站在历史的正确一边。
注意：我在中东和北非地区，和军方没有任何关系。
当我第一次阅读达里奥的声明时，我对军方如此轻视人工智能安全（更不用说隐私）感到震惊。看到Anthropic抵制军方，我感到非常自豪，甚至立刻删除了GPT，成为Claude的用户。看到自己喜欢的产品与自己的价值观一致，真是令人愉快。
但今天，经过更多思考，我意识到了一些事情。一个政府如果允许某一家人工智能公司主导规则，这为未来的人工智能公司抵制政府监管开了一个先例。这在2020年代可能不算什么，但根据所有估计，到2030年代，许多人工智能公司将足够强大，能够抵抗整个政府结构。也许美国或中国不会，但它们绝对会强大到不容易受到影响。
这些独立公司最终会成长到如此庞大，以至于没有政府能够驯服它们。我知道现在看起来一家公司估值不到万亿，抵抗每年花费7万亿的政府似乎是不可能的。但放眼未来，下一代人工智能公司很可能轻松达到10万亿的估值。如果你看到一个刚学会说话的两岁小孩，突然开始谈论量子物理，你可以肯定他长大后会成为一位强者。
我知道软实力与硬实力是截然不同的，但足够多的软实力可以轻易转化为硬实力，前提是：
1. 你有一个雄心勃勃的首席执行官。
2. 公司的生存受到某种威胁。
我这里并不是在谈论通用人工智能，而是谈论那些为了生存不择手段的传统私募股权公司。它们由对股东忠诚度高于其他任何事物的高管所主导。
归根结底，企业是由独裁者管理的（它们必须如此），而政府则不是（至少在西方不是）。也许我们真的不应该信任私募股权去追求除了利润以外的任何东西。政府虽然操控和血腥，但至少我们可以投票。
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note: I am in MENA, am not with the military in any way.<p>when i first read the statement by Dario, i was shocked by the fact the military was so dismissive about Ai safety (not to mention privacy). Seeing anthropic resist the military, I felt so proud of being a claude user to the point I deleted gpt right away. it's nice to see your fav products sync with your values.<p>but today, after thinking more about it, i realized something. for a government to allow one Ai company to dictate terms, it opens up a precedent for Ai companies in the future to resist governmental oversight. that might not be a big deal in 2020s, but in 2030s by all estimations many Ai companies will be big enough to resist entire governmental structures. Maybe not the US or China, but they will definitely be big enough not to be easily influenced.<p>those independent companies will eventually grow so large, no government can hope to tame them. i know that right now it seems impossible for a mere ccorp valued at less than a trillion to resist a government that spends 7 trillion each year. but zooming out, it feels likely that the next generation of Ai companies will be easily valued at 10T. if you look at a 2-year-old which just learned how to talk and suddenly he starts talking quantum, you can bet your a* he will grow up to be a powerhouse.<p>i know soft monetary power is very different than hard military power, but enough tokens of the first type can easily be converted into the second type if:
1. you have a sufficiently ambitious CEO.
2. the survival of the company is threatened in some way.
I am not talking about AGI here, but good old private equity that does whatever it needs to survive. ruled by suits that have more loyalty to shareholders than anyone or anything else.<p>at the end of the day, corporations are ruled by dictators (they have to be), governments are not (not in the West at least). maybe just maybe we should NOT trust private equity to seek anything but profits. governments are manipulative and bloody, but at least we can vote.