责任产出
大多数人对人工智能已经感到厌倦，以至于我几乎不想再谈论或讨论它了。但我仍然决定继续，因为我相信这可能会为讨论增添一些价值。
人工智能公司宣传其能够带来的多倍（10倍、100倍、1000倍）生产力提升，并且如果我们不利用这一点，就会被抛在后面。这种“错失恐惧症”（FOMO）导致了近年来的疯狂支出和裁员潮。但我认为我们需要讨论“责任”和“问责”这一方面，因为无论今天的人工智能有多优秀，我们尚未解决这个特定问题，而这正是实际系统中的关键决定因素。
例如，作为一名拥有多年经验的工程师，以下是我的数据（我知道我还是个新手）：
最大代码产出（我在良好状态下可以编写/修改的有效代码量）= 约200行代码
最大问责产出（我可以直接负责交付给依赖该软件的广泛用户群的代码量）= 约50行代码
以下是前沿模型的相同数据：
最大代码产出：1,000,000行代码（假设预算无限，因为为什么不呢）
最大问责产出：0（这就是致命一击）
简单的论点是：真正的商业是建立在问责基础上的，而不仅仅是原始产出。如果我将原始产出提高100倍，但没有相应扩大我的问责，那么经济价值仍然会被问责所制约。因此，除非这些智能公司（如OpenAI、Anthropic、谷歌）开始对生成的代码承担责任，否则模型的优劣几乎没有意义。我的问责产出仍然是瓶颈。
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Most people have had enough of AI, to the point that I almost do not feel like talking or discussing about it anymore. But I will still go ahead because I believe it might add non-zero value to the discourse.<p>AI companies tout the multi-fold (10x, 100x, 1000x) productivity gains that AI can lead to and the fact that if we do not tap into it, we will be left behind. This FOMO has what has led to the spending and layoff frenzy in the recent years. But I think we need to discuss the aspect of "responsibility"/"accountability" because regardless of how good AI is today, we haven't yet solved this specific problem and it is THE critical determinant in real systems.<p>For example, as an engineer with some years of experience in my bag, here are my numbers (rookie I know)-<p>Max code throughput (Amount of working correct code I can write/modify in a good day) = ~200 LoC
Max accountability throughout (Amount of code I can directly take responsibility for shipping to a wide user base that depend on the software) = ~50 LoC<p>Here are the same numbers for a frontier model:<p>Max code throughout: 1000,000 LoC (assuming unlimited budget, because why not)
Max accountability throughput: 0 (this is the killer blow)<p>Here is the simple argument: Real business are built on accountability and not just raw output. If I increase the raw output by 100x but do not scale my accountability, the economic value is still bottlenecked on accountability. So unless these intelligence companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) start taking accountability for the code that gets generated, it almost does not matter how good the model is. It's still bottlenecked on my accountability throughput.